Enter heat demand
Annual heat demand is the common basis for heat pump, gas and district heating.
Guide
Compare heat pump, gas or district heating: cost, subsidy and risk
A fair heating-system comparison starts with the same heat demand. After that, the decision depends not only on today’s kWh price, but on efficiency, fixed fees, upfront cost, subsidy, contract terms and price risk together.
Quick answer
Quick answer: what matters in a heating-system comparison?
Use the same heat demand for every system and compare two levels side by side: annual running cost and total cost over your period. A heat pump depends on SPF, electricity price, subsidy and building standard; gas on unit price, efficiency and carbon/price risk; district heating on tariff, fixed fee, connection cost and contract commitment.
Example
Example: why the cheapest annual option does not always win
Decision focuswhich heating system fits best economically and practically under the same heat-demand assumption
Main leverheat demand, SPF, energy prices, fixed fees, subsidy, upfront cost, carbon/price risk and comparison period
Separate checkheat load, flow temperature, subsidy, grid or district-heat access, contract terms, space and future price development
Next stepcalculate a base case and a cautious scenario; if the ranking is close, review real offers and technical planning
Decision view
Three heating systems, one heat basis
The graphic moves from heat demand to the three system options and ends with the cost comparison. This shows whether efficiency, tariff, subsidy or upfront cost drives the result.
Graphic stages
The labels explain the stages shown in the graphic.
Heat demandkWh/year · common basis
Heat pumpSPF · electricity use
Gas/district heattariff · price and fixed cost
The result becomes decision-ready only when energy prices, SPF, upfront cost, subsidy and contract commitment are plausible together.
Technical feasibility and contract terms remain separate checks.
Calculation
Calculation method and model limits
The method uses the same heat demand for every system. It then shows annual running cost alongside total cost over the selected period.
Put systems on the same heat basis
The same heat demand becomes comparable energy input for each system: electricity for the heat pump, gas for gas heating, delivered heat for district heating.
Build annual cost
Energy input × unit price plus fixed fees and risk buffers gives annual running cost.
Include subsidy
For the heat pump, the entered subsidy is deducted from upfront cost where it is realistic for the scenario.
Compare total cost
Net upfront cost plus annual cost × period gives model total cost.
Check the ranking
If annual-cost and total-cost leaders differ, a second scenario is especially important.
The result shows a cost ranking under your assumptions. Before investing, review offers, subsidies, heat load, flow temperature, connection terms and price risks separately.
Simplified formula
Simplified: heat pump = heat demand ÷ SPF; gas = heat demand ÷ efficiency; district heating = assumed heat demand. Annual cost includes unit price, fixed fees and risk buffer. Total cost adds upfront cost, subsidy and timeframe. Example: 15,000 kWh heat demand and SPF 3.5 result in about 4,286 kWh heat-pump electricity.
If-then rules
If-then rules for the decision
If the heat pump is only slightly ahead
test a lower SPF, higher electricity price, lower subsidy and required side work. If it still leads, the result is much stronger.
If gas looks cheap because of low upfront cost
include carbon/price risk, maintenance and a longer period. Low upfront cost can lose its advantage through higher running cost.
If district heating looks attractive
check fixed fee, price adjustment clause, connection cost, contract length and supplier lock-in. Convenience only helps if the actual contract also fits.
Step by step
How to interpret this topic
Use the same heat demand as the basis
Heat demand must be identical for all systems. Otherwise you are not comparing heat pump, gas and district heating, but different building or consumption assumptions.
Read annual cost and total cost together
Annual cost shows the running burden. Total cost shows whether upfront cost, subsidy and timeframe pay off over the full period. This prevents false confidence from a low monthly figure.
Enter subsidy and risk deliberately
In the model, subsidy only lowers the assumed upfront cost, not electricity use. The gas buffer makes carbon and price risk visible without claiming a specific future price path.
Do not infer feasibility from cost
A low model cost does not replace heat-load design, flow-temperature checks or contract review. Cost, technical feasibility and legal conditions have to fit together.
Checklist
Quick checklist
- Use identical heat demand for every system.
- Use a realistic SPF for the heat pump rather than an ideal value.
- Enter subsidy only if it is plausible for the specific project.
- Check gas with a carbon/price-risk buffer, not only today’s unit price.
- Read district-heating contract, fixed fee, price adjustment clause and connection cost separately.
- If the ranking is close, review real offers, heat-load design and professional planning.
Common mistakes
Common mistakes
Comparing only monthly cost
Low running cost is not enough if upfront cost is high or subsidy is uncertain. The decision depends on annual cost and total cost together.
Treating subsidy as guaranteed
Programmes, rates and eligibility rules can change. The calculator includes only the amount you enter; eligibility needs a separate check.
Checking the district-heating contract too late
For district heating, fixed fee, price formula, contract length and connection terms can matter more than the unit price per kWh.
FAQ
FAQ about heating system comparison
Is a heat pump always cheaper than gas?
No. A heat pump is strongest when the building, flow temperature, SPF and electricity price fit. With unfavourable design, the cost advantage can shrink or disappear.
When does district heating make sense?
District heating can make sense when connection, tariff, fixed fee and long-term price rules fit the building. Convenience does not replace checking the actual contract.
Why does upfront cost matter?
Because a system with low annual cost first has to recover a higher upfront cost over several years. Without investment cost, the comparison can be misleading.
Does this replace energy advice?
No. The comparison is a cost model. Heat load, technical feasibility, subsidies, offer prices and legal requirements need separate review.